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	<title>Comments for Notes</title>
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	<link>http://naml.us/blog</link>
	<description>Geoffrey Irving</description>
	<pubDate>Fri, 30 Jul 2010 20:23:18 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Comment on Insurance choice can be bad by Geoffrey Irving</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-choice-can-be-bad#comment-167</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoffrey Irving</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 03:16:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=313#comment-167</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;For better or worse, I think the conclusion of the argument is that "actuarial science" breaks down in the presence of sufficient individual information plus sufficient individual choice.  At a minimum, it means that "actuarial science" has to mean "actuarial science plus game theory plus security analysis" in order to track knowledge and knowledge leakage.  If these can be made to work, I'd prefer market mechanisms as well, but I don't see how to target the regulations accurately enough.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Can you think of a natural set of regulations that would, for example, prohibit individuals from choosing different levels of insurance based on whether they plan to have children?  Assuming you accept that it makes sense to insure against the costs of pregnancy, that is (which is an entirely subjective thing to accept).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Exotic solutions come to mind, such as allowing customers to craft their own insurance plans and running them through some kind of blind actuarial auction system, but that kind of thing is unattractive.&lt;/p&gt;
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For better or worse, I think the conclusion of the argument is that &#8220;actuarial science&#8221; breaks down in the presence of sufficient individual information plus sufficient individual choice.  At a minimum, it means that &#8220;actuarial science&#8221; has to mean &#8220;actuarial science plus game theory plus security analysis&#8221; in order to track knowledge and knowledge leakage.  If these can be made to work, I&#8217;d prefer market mechanisms as well, but I don&#8217;t see how to target the regulations accurately enough.</p>

<p>Can you think of a natural set of regulations that would, for example, prohibit individuals from choosing different levels of insurance based on whether they plan to have children?  Assuming you accept that it makes sense to insure against the costs of pregnancy, that is (which is an entirely subjective thing to accept).</p>

<p>Exotic solutions come to mind, such as allowing customers to craft their own insurance plans and running them through some kind of blind actuarial auction system, but that kind of thing is unattractive.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Comment on Free market insurance is incompatible with knowledge by Geoffrey Irving</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-and-knowledge#comment-166</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoffrey Irving</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 03:04:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=307#comment-166</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Yeah, I have itex+markdown enabled, and it seems like enjoy doing weird things to comments.  I'm not sure exactly why.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Thanks for the correction; I agree that we were referring to the same basic trade-off.  The existence of such a number would seem to mean that it comes down to routine cost control.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, I have itex+markdown enabled, and it seems like enjoy doing weird things to comments.  I&#8217;m not sure exactly why.</p>

<p>Thanks for the correction; I agree that we were referring to the same basic trade-off.  The existence of such a number would seem to mean that it comes down to routine cost control.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Comment on Free market insurance is incompatible with knowledge by Jon</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-and-knowledge#comment-165</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 02:16:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=307#comment-165</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Your blog software appears to support some interesting short-hand control characters for formatting...&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your blog software appears to support some interesting short-hand control characters for formatting&#8230;</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Comment on Free market insurance is incompatible with knowledge by Jon</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-and-knowledge#comment-164</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 02:15:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=307#comment-164</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;
Also, it’s not always true that employee health insurance doesn’t come with options.  In my case, I have a choice between two plans that differ significantly in the coverage of out-of-network expenses.  The cost difference is around $100/month.  Since I’m fairly healthy, and assumed I would have no trouble picking in-network care, I went for the cheap one.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I think I very carefully said: "The trade-off they are given is usually about being subject to increasingly harsh regimes that control routine costs."  Now you seem to think that this decision primarily effects emergency care.  I disagree*, but I certainly wasn't saying that there weren't options.  I was referring to precisely the choice you mention.  &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;In my experience, when the plan puts a price differential on in-network providers, there is a number that you call at the time of the emergency admission that eliminates the cost factor in that circumstance.  The purpose of the number is to identify to the insurance company the emergency nature and have them  sign-off on it--lest you sue later on for ambiguity.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote>
Also, it’s not always true that employee health insurance doesn’t come with options.  In my case, I have a choice between two plans that differ significantly in the coverage of out-of-network expenses.  The cost difference is around $100/month.  Since I’m fairly healthy, and assumed I would have no trouble picking in-network care, I went for the cheap one.
</blockquote>

<p>I think I very carefully said: &#8220;The trade-off they are given is usually about being subject to increasingly harsh regimes that control routine costs.&#8221;  Now you seem to think that this decision primarily effects emergency care.  I disagree*, but I certainly wasn&#8217;t saying that there weren&#8217;t options.  I was referring to precisely the choice you mention.  </p>

<ul>
<li>In my experience, when the plan puts a price differential on in-network providers, there is a number that you call at the time of the emergency admission that eliminates the cost factor in that circumstance.  The purpose of the number is to identify to the insurance company the emergency nature and have them  sign-off on it&#8211;lest you sue later on for ambiguity.</li>
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		<title>Comment on Insurance choice can be bad by Jon</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-choice-can-be-bad#comment-163</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 02:08:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=313#comment-163</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Regarding the marxist line, the qualifier "in a cooperative pool" is critical.  A single payer system is one such example of such a pool, but so are more fragmentary constructions (such as are being proposed in some of the bills).  I think these are distinct from 'insurance' more generally.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;"cooperatives" would likely be apportionment of benefits (and "taxes") by a political process--whereas, 'insurance' implies something based on actuarial science.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Clearly I'd like to make something work more like the latter than the former.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regarding the marxist line, the qualifier &#8220;in a cooperative pool&#8221; is critical.  A single payer system is one such example of such a pool, but so are more fragmentary constructions (such as are being proposed in some of the bills).  I think these are distinct from &#8216;insurance&#8217; more generally.</p>

<p>&#8220;cooperatives&#8221; would likely be apportionment of benefits (and &#8220;taxes&#8221;) by a political process&#8211;whereas, &#8216;insurance&#8217; implies something based on actuarial science.</p>

<p>Clearly I&#8217;d like to make something work more like the latter than the former.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Comment on Free market insurance is incompatible with knowledge by Geoffrey Irving</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-and-knowledge#comment-161</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoffrey Irving</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 01:00:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=307#comment-161</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Technically, you should say that most of us pay for health insurance as a mandatory employment benefit.  The fact that it's mandatory doesn't mean it isn't health insurance.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Also, it's not always true that employee health insurance doesn't come with options.  In my case, I have a choice between two plans that differ significantly in the coverage of out-of-network expenses.  The cost difference is around $100/month.  Since I'm fairly healthy, and assumed I would have no trouble picking in-network care, I went for the cheap one.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I'd argue that the major actuarial difference between the two plans relates to emergency care, not routine care.  It's easy to choose an in-network primary care doctor, and not so easy to pick which hospital you end up at in an emergency.  As it happens, a few weeks after I made this choice I had to get to a hospital quickly.  Happily I ended up at an in-network hospital, though apparently we weren't sure of that when we picked it.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I'd say this option is essentially a penalty on people who expect to need frequent emergency care.  Admittedly, it's a penalty that calls for one of the world's smallest violins given the salaries of these particular "victims", but I imagine similar issues apply at other companies.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Technically, you should say that most of us pay for health insurance as a mandatory employment benefit.  The fact that it&#8217;s mandatory doesn&#8217;t mean it isn&#8217;t health insurance.</p>

<p>Also, it&#8217;s not always true that employee health insurance doesn&#8217;t come with options.  In my case, I have a choice between two plans that differ significantly in the coverage of out-of-network expenses.  The cost difference is around $100/month.  Since I&#8217;m fairly healthy, and assumed I would have no trouble picking in-network care, I went for the cheap one.</p>

<p>I&#8217;d argue that the major actuarial difference between the two plans relates to emergency care, not routine care.  It&#8217;s easy to choose an in-network primary care doctor, and not so easy to pick which hospital you end up at in an emergency.  As it happens, a few weeks after I made this choice I had to get to a hospital quickly.  Happily I ended up at an in-network hospital, though apparently we weren&#8217;t sure of that when we picked it.</p>

<p>I&#8217;d say this option is essentially a penalty on people who expect to need frequent emergency care.  Admittedly, it&#8217;s a penalty that calls for one of the world&#8217;s smallest violins given the salaries of these particular &#8220;victims&#8221;, but I imagine similar issues apply at other companies.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Comment on Insurance choice can be bad by Geoffrey Irving</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-choice-can-be-bad#comment-160</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoffrey Irving</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 00:46:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=313#comment-160</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Pregnancy costs are a good example.  It's unfortunate that you have to throw in the socialism reference, though.  In an ideal world, we'd be able to separate the issue of insurance from the idea of progressive taxation, since they really are separate.  However, but I'll grant that this probably isn't that world.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pregnancy costs are a good example.  It&#8217;s unfortunate that you have to throw in the socialism reference, though.  In an ideal world, we&#8217;d be able to separate the issue of insurance from the idea of progressive taxation, since they really are separate.  However, but I&#8217;ll grant that this probably isn&#8217;t that world.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Comment on Insurance choice can be bad by Jon</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-choice-can-be-bad#comment-159</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Aug 2009 23:43:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=313#comment-159</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;One case of this is pregnancy costs.  Accidental pregnant is rare (scare stories about teens aside).  Pregnancy is planned; yet I think most would insist upon its inclusion in any health plan.  No not because they are concerned about accidental pregnancy but because they want the benefit.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In a cooperative pool, people will demand what they will consume and resist what they will not.  From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One case of this is pregnancy costs.  Accidental pregnant is rare (scare stories about teens aside).  Pregnancy is planned; yet I think most would insist upon its inclusion in any health plan.  No not because they are concerned about accidental pregnancy but because they want the benefit.</p>

<p>In a cooperative pool, people will demand what they will consume and resist what they will not.  From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Comment on Free market insurance is incompatible with knowledge by Jon</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-and-knowledge#comment-158</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Aug 2009 23:37:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=307#comment-158</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Very very few people have health insurance.  No, many of us enjoy something different: an employment benefit.   This eliminates the selection effect.  Conversely the individual insurance market is small, volatile, and expensive.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Certainly this benefit has risk mitigation properties: much like a defined benefit pension plan does; but employees are not offered a trade-off between risk mitigation (health care) and risk taking (more $$$).  No, the trade-off they are given is usually about being subject to increasingly harsh regimes that control routine costs.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Very very few people have health insurance.  No, many of us enjoy something different: an employment benefit.   This eliminates the selection effect.  Conversely the individual insurance market is small, volatile, and expensive.</p>

<p>Certainly this benefit has risk mitigation properties: much like a defined benefit pension plan does; but employees are not offered a trade-off between risk mitigation (health care) and risk taking (more $$$).  No, the trade-off they are given is usually about being subject to increasingly harsh regimes that control routine costs.</p>
$).  No, the trade-off they are given is usually about being subject to increasingly harsh regimes that control routine costs.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Comment on Free market insurance is incompatible with knowledge by Geoffrey Irving</title>
		<link>http://naml.us/blog/2009/08/insurance-and-knowledge#comment-157</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoffrey Irving</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Aug 2009 22:55:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://naml.us/blog/?p=307#comment-157</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;That’s a wonderful podcast.  Here’s a better link: &lt;a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/08/hear_too_much_information.html" rel="nofollow"&gt;http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/08/hear_too_much_information.html&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I like the part where they hypothesize that one of the reasons this hasn’t destroyed the insurance industry already is that insurance is so messy and complicated.  I think that’s exactly right: if choosing between different insurance policies is confusing, it isn’t practical for individuals to carefully optimize their policy choices and thereby destroy the insurance industry.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That’s a wonderful podcast.  Here’s a better link: <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/08/hear_too_much_information.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/08/hear_too_much_information.html</a>.</p>

<p>I like the part where they hypothesize that one of the reasons this hasn’t destroyed the insurance industry already is that insurance is so messy and complicated.  I think that’s exactly right: if choosing between different insurance policies is confusing, it isn’t practical for individuals to carefully optimize their policy choices and thereby destroy the insurance industry.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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